Why NFTs will win (full thesis)

The Kingdoms and the Open Lands

GM

Welcome to our 9 new subscribers.

Remember: grass never judges you. It never brings up that one NFT you didn’t buy, or the one you sold too early. And it never asks you to send ETH to a random wallet.

Touch grass.

In today’s edition:

  • Why NFTs will win (full thesis)

  • Updated NFT rankings

  • Fresh drops

More info on Mint/Watch lists HERE.

Why NFTs will win

Yesterday Nike announced that their NFTs will be added into future EA Sports games. It’s the first of likely many partnerships that’ll tie into their ecosystem.

Some people were surprised, almost like they forgot NFTs had this crossover potential, but this is actually the main reason why I’m so bullish on NFTs in the first place.

Then I realized, Dear Readers, that I never really laid out this thesis for you all before. So that’s what I’m going to be doing on this beautiful Friday.

Presenting: Why NFTs Will Win.

Let’s start at a high level. I’ve always had a very simple thesis in mind when it comes to NFTs:

  1. We’re spending more time online every year

  2. We’re going to value more digital things

  3. Blockchain assets will be far more popular than centralized goods

I don’t think #1 and #2 are controversial at all, and anyone who has a Timmy Fortnite in their lives knows this trend is already happening.

But what about #3?

Well let’s take a look. As more people buy things online, they’ll find that they can be a patron of two different realms. Let’s call these…

The Kingdoms and the Open Lands

Kingdoms are walled gardens closed off from the rest of the world. This includes centralized digital goods sellers such as:

  • Epic Games (V-bucks)

  • Twitter (Blue Check)

  • Roblox (Robux)

  • OnlyFans (memberships)

You’re encouraged to buy things inside any of these Kingdoms, but slow down – there are rules you must abide by.

For one, it’s against the laws of most Kingdoms to sell or buy goods from other individuals directly, it almost always has to flow through centralized stores. And don’t even think about trading these goods outside of their walls. Anyone that builds a Twitter Blue Check marketplace will be promptly shut down.

There are a million other rules that must be followed, and any missteps could lead to the Lords taking their goods back from you, without any form of appeal, and perhaps even banishing you from their Kingdom.

It turns out you didn’t truly own any of these items in the first place, merely rented them, and this is often stated clearly in their Book of Laws.

Why would anyone buy goods under these conditions? Well typically these Kingdoms offer some allure that makes it worth it. These can be forms of utility that only they offer; a game worth playing, or just a network of your friends on their platform.

Now let’s take a look at the Open Lands. These make up a singular large territory governed by blockchains, which are in turn maintained by a decentralized group of citizens.

The Open Lands use permissionless marketplaces that anyone can use. Both Lords and Commoners have access to the same public infrastructure and pay the same fees – without exception.

The Superpower

One of the advantages that the Kingdoms have over the Open Lands today is that they use technologies that have been developed and fine-tuned over many years. The Kingdoms run on extremely fast rails, with low latency and delightful user interfaces.

In contrast, the Open Lands are scrappy. They run on far newer technologies that haven’t been optimized for users, and it shows.

It’s New York in the 80s – there’s a ton of raw potential and a vibrant culture, but it’s very rough around the edges and there’s no way you’d recommend it to anyone unless you know they’re savvy enough to navigate the subways and keep themselves out of trouble.

But the Open Lands have a superpower that the Kingdoms don’t have – they share knowledge.

This manifests in two ways:

  1. Blockchains run on open-source code, so innovations in any one corner automatically become available everywhere else.

  2. Tokens (like NFTs) are publicly accessible data. This means anyone can create apps that reference tokens from any other creator.

Point number 1 means the underlying features will improve much faster than they do in the Kingdoms. And point number 2 means it’s much easier for network effects to build.

Let’s fast forward to 2026 to see how this might play out. There you are, in your Sunday Best, deciding on a new game to play. There are two popular sports titles that are very similar in quality, almost clones of each other. The main difference is that one is a blockchain game and the other is not.

They each sell you cool looking cosmetic “skins”, but only the blockchain items tap into a global data network and can be referenced in endless apps outside of the game.

Why is this good? Well because it means the items turn into hubs, and each app that pings or references that item becomes a spoke giving off additional benefits that flow back to the hub.

That $20 pair of Nike NFT sneakers also gets you access to a Nike skin in a sports game, and it lets you into a token-gated sneakerhead subreddit, and it gets you discounts from another indie sneaker company trying to attract customers, and so on.

In other words, you get way more value for that same $20 you spent, compared to the non-blockchain game that only gives you value within its small Kingdom.

It’s a no-brainer and will make people ask themselves “why the hell would I ever buy an item that is limited to a single game.”

This is why the Open Lands will win out

It’s not because of the promise of censorship resistance, or some idealistic form of ownership. These are super important – and honestly the main reason why I’m here – but that’s not what convinces the average person.

Instead, it’ll be the simple reality that the Open Lands will provide a lot more value than any single Kingdom can match.

So there you have it, the Hopium that keeps me going. All of this takes time, but once momentum picks up I think you’ll see “years” of adoption happening in months.

NOTE: These drops are lightly curated. Our only requirement is that they have recognizable founders. As usual, DYOR. To learn more go here.

Neural Sediments by Eko33

Jean-Jacques Duclaux aka Eko33, a seasoned digital artist with 20+ years of experience, will make his Art Blocks debut next Wednesday with a Curated release, Neural Sediments.

The work explores the complexity of the human brain and offers a lot of contrast in doing so, often showcasing layers of tectonic ground with clearly outlined jagged edges, but colored softly, sometimes even creating the illusion of sparkles.

Because of the unique aesthetic of this collection, and the caliber of the curators who’ve picked this artist’s work up until now, we’ve…

Added to Watch List

Machine by Harm van den Dorpel

Mercedes-Benz, in collaboration with OG Dutch cryptoartist Harm van den Dorpel, presents Maschine, the inaugural release of their web3 initiative, NXT.

This generative collection marks van den Dorpel's first venture into full 3D artwork, referencing the rotational power of machines both in concept and in practice, as AI has been integrated in the curation process.

The 1,000 pieces in this drop will sell through a Dutch Auction on the Fingerprints DAO website (another collaborator). Our interest is piqued, so we’ll keep an eye out for further details.

Wildxyz June Drops

Digital art platform Wildxyz recently unveiled its June drop schedule, featuring interesting sneak peeks and familiar names from the generative art scene.

Drops are scheduled from the 13th until the 29th, with price and supply details coming soon. As usual, I expect that Oasis holders will benefit from allowlist privileges and reduced pricing for most, if not all, of these.

THE MINT LIST

  1. Project Animus. RTFKT's biggest launch since Clone-X

  2. FewoWorld. New PFP by Fewocious, a rising star in the art world

  3. Symbiogenesis. Square Enix's upcoming gaming NFT

  4. 10KTF PFP. Drop from a team that includes Yuga and Beeple

  5. Ether. Anime PFP collection by viii, an artist with a cult following

  6. Garbage Friends. New PFP from the creator of Invisible Friends

  7. Dimensionals - EVE. Free gaming PFP from doxxed studio

  8. Glacier Dreams by Refik Anadol. AI art from the MoMA exhibitor

  9. Tony Babel x Typical Friends. Limited edition from the popular artist

  10. SIGHTSEERS l PERIMETER TOWN. Glitch art follow-up on sovrn.art

Team

Giancarlo Chaux@GiancarloChaux

Guillermo Martin@pikanxiety

Jon Yale @JonYale