Huge moment for crypto gaming

March 06, 2023

GM 

I went to an NFT gallery show on Friday and was punished for it.

Not because the show was bad – I was actually very impressed with LA’s AI art scene – but because upon my return I found twitter in a state of euphoria over a stealth mint of on-chain owls that took off overnight.  

And now I’m being haunted by this breathtakingly beautiful, emotionally drenched work of ASCII art that keeps staring back at me with those dreamy eyes: 

My soul aches, what could’ve been. 

Moral of the story: never leave your keyboard for a single moment until your final breath. 

Is that healthy? Yes, extremely. No further questions. 

This week's update: 

  • Are Bitcoin NFTs just a fad?

  • Huge moment for crypto gaming

  • All the latest rankings

More info on the Mint/Watch lists here. 

ARE BITCOIN NFTs JUST A FAD?

Context: 

Ordinals are having a moment. People have now minted over 300,000 inscriptions (Bitcoin NFTs) without signs of slowing down. They’re paying more attention to upcoming drops like Taproot Wizards which might finally bring some home-grown memes to Bitcoin. And, at the time of this writing, collectors are sending millions of dollars worth of BTC to a Yuga Labs wallet in hopes of getting one of their upcoming art pieces. 

There’s even a mixtape. 

What should we make of all this? Do Bitcoin NFTs have staying power or is this just the latest in a long, long line of overhyped narratives from the world of NFTs? 

Well you ain’t seen nothing yet, according to Galaxy Digital. The research firm gave us the most detailed forecast we’ve seen so far with a prediction that Bitcoin NFTs could become a $5 billion market cap by March 2025. For reference, this would be about 40% of the current Ethereum NFT market cap. 

Here are the highlights from the report: 

  • Bitcoin can grow much faster than Ethereum NFTs did. It took ETH NFTs 3 years to reach a $1b market cap because people weren’t convinced the tech even mattered. The level of NFT awareness and acceptance is much higher this time around.

  • Bitcoin will attract fine art and other high end objects. Inscriptions are perfect for generative and 1/1 art. There’s an allure around the Bitcoin brand that could separate it from other chains, plus more NFTs will actually be on-chain vs ETH.

  • Bitcoin won’t attract gaming or large supply PFPs. Why? Minting costs are higher and paid by the creator. For example, it would cost ~$200k to release a 10k PFP collection like Bored Apes on Bitcoin. Not gonna happen unless demand is guaranteed.

  • Expect a ton of secondary volume for Bitcoin NFTs. Partly because costs to transfer Inscriptions are far lower than NFTs on ethereum.

  • Expect huge infrastructure improvement in Q2 2023. Marketplaces and wallets are already popping up and will be polished in the next few months.

  • Get ready to see more creators jump on board. Yuga just broke the door wide open and may turn Bitcoin drops into a status symbol. 

Our Take: 

Bitcoin NFTs are here to stay. Yes the user experience still sucks, but the scene has only been around for like 12 minutes. And yes there are a lot of low-effort collections, but this was also driven by a race to get low inscription numbers (copy pasting a collection is simply faster), which will become less important as supply grows. 

How fast will it grow? The X factor for us is how many Bitcoiners convert to NFTs now that they exist on their home turf. There’s a lot of potential here given how much untapped wealth there is in Bitcoin land, and the demographics (rich, terminally-online, digital asset believers) seem like a perfect match.

We talk about mass adoption a lot in terms of “normies” participating but keep in mind that NFTs still have a low % of market share even within crypto. This should help.

In the meantime, if you already think ETH NFTs are complex enough, maybe it’s best to wait on the sidelines for a bit until inscriptions exit the stone age.

It’s indeed possible to be uncomfortably early. 

A HUGE MOMENT FOR CRYPTO GAMING

Context: 

The year is 2021. NFTs have skyrocketed into the mainstream with art and collectibles. People now turn their eyes to gaming, which many consider to be the largest market. One by one you start to see all the gaming heavyweights name drop NFTs in press conferences: 

Take-Two (GTA): "If you believe in collectible physical goods, I don't know why you wouldn't believe in collectible digital goods”

Nintendo (Mario): “The Metaverse is of interest to us”

EA (FIFA): “NFTs…are the future of our industry”

The NFT crowd goes wild. On the other hand traditional gamers are skeptical, and some outright despise it. No big deal, this kind of controversy is common with any new technology.

Plus let’s be real, gamers hate everything – they’ll get over it.

But then the crypto market crashes and NFTs go down with it. All of the sudden the big boy publishers aren’t giving NFTs as much love as they were a year earlier. The NFT crowd is still asking about crypto games, but EA and Nintendo stop returning their calls. Everyone slowly crawls back to traditional gaming. 

Except one company: Square Enix, the publisher behind the massively popular Final Fantasy and Tomb Raider franchises.

Despite getting pressure and disapproval from the media, they continued to express bullishness regarding NFTs and have kept their pedal to the metal.

This all culminated on Friday when Square Enix fired their President after 10 years because he wasn’t enough of a crypto gaming expert.

The guy they replaced him with (Takashi Kiryu) is a full-on blockchain specialist, having worked on metaverse projects in a prior role, and he’s now perhaps the most likely person to bridge the gap between the two industries.

He’s also apparently an AI generated degen chad according to all of you.

Ok - what's next?

Square Enix is launching an NFT called Symbiogenesis on Polygon this spring.

Given the company’s influence in the industry, and all the recent controversy, this could be the most important gaming NFT drop to date.

Here’s what we know so far:

Symbiogenesis will create an experience built around digital collectible art that is tied to a storyline players will unfold in a virtual (turn-based) adventure. The art evolves with each strategic move a player makes.

The project is set on a mysterious floating continent where unique storylines unravel based on information obtained by holding digital collectible art that represents different characters.

…

Symbiogenesis offers players multiple endings. However, only three players, meeting specific conditions, will be chosen to participate in the final “World Mission.” These special three will decide the ending of the story, the fate of the world, and everyone in it. 

Dean Takahashi, Venturebeat

Sounds intense. We don’t know many practical details about the drop itself, which is why it's still only on our watchlist.

But here’s my take. I’ll be way more excited about this if they announce a high supply, low price experience built for scale as opposed to yet another 5-10k micro drop that will only benefit a small group of existing traders.

NFTs have a bad rep right now and need a “hit” that has as little to do with floor price speculation as possible.

Bottom line: if you’re a fan of NFTs then you probably should be rooting for Square Enix to succeed.

The only other AAA gaming crypto initiative at this scale was Ubisoft’s Quartz in 2021, which ended up flopping and quickly got swept under the rug. Another disappointment would further push back adoption timelines and give industry execs even more reason to remain skeptical.

We’re doing our part: interns at Mint or Skip HQ are now instructed to start the day by spreading their arms and lending their spirit energy to Square Enix’s new AI CEO. God speed.

SOMETHING TO NOTE

We removed All AI Art Looks The Same from our Mint List this week after they revealed the project would only include a small number of airdropped 1/1s as opposed to a larger public mint as was previously expected. 

THE MINT LIST

Coming Soon: deep dives on www.mintorskip.com.